I’ve been following the Case Race videos over at Xtreme Diecast Racing looking for candidates to try out. Recently, an unexpected contender, the Case K Mod Rod, made it to the semi-finals. While it didn’t survive the round, I was intrigued because it seemed like a light casting to do so well. I was hoping that meant the wheels would be good candidates for racing, especially since I love the Deep Dish 8-Spoke wheels.
So, the questions are:
- Was that an exceptionally fast Mod Rod?
- How would you know if any given example of a casting is exceptional?
- How many examples of a casting would you need to buy to expect to find “The Golden One”?
When I find a casting I like, or intend to race, I typically buy ten or more of them and test them on my 16 foot track with a timer. I then take the fastest of them to build, and the rest go to the grandkids. I wanted to do something a little more rigorous with the Mod Rod, so it was time to gather some data and dredge up some Statistics.
As I expected, the Mod Rod is fairly light, at about 28 grams. A speed under 1.7 seconds on my track is about the cut off for getting my attention. As you can see, two cars, #1 & #11 met that criteria and would be good wheel candidates. But are they “The Golden Ones”?
Data sets that are the result of a combination of random effects typically follow what is known as a “Normal Distribution”, meaning that most values will fall around the average, or mean, while tapering off towards the edges.
By M. W. Toews - Own work, based (in concept) on figure by Jeremy Kemp, on 2005-02-09, CC BY 2.5, commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=1903871
With a mean (average) of 1.724 seconds, and a calculated standard deviation of 0.027, we can create the normal distribution and show where the examples fell on the curve.
This shows us that the two fastest examples we found are just below one standard deviation below mean, and that to get to 1.67 seconds, or two standard deviations, we would explect to test at least 50 cars!
In summary, yes Hot Wheel performance follows a normal distribution, but to find an exceptionally fast car, you would have to test a lot of examples. For now, I think I’ll stick to my 10 car strategy, but at least I have a way now to calculate if it is The Golden One.
And, if you are interested, here are where Mod Rod #1 wheels went! They are going to Monster Motor Sports Scrapper Showdown!
Next in the Quest for the Golded One we look at the 2019 Kia Stinger GT.